The Finnish Economic Policy Council has endorsed the Ministry of Finance’s autumn 2026 macroeconomic forecast. A new memorandum provides background information on the forecast endorsement process.
The Finnish Economic Policy Council (EPC) has endorsed the autumn 2026 macroeconomic forecast prepared by the department responsible for independent forecasting at the Ministry of Finance by means of an endorsement letter issued on 26 August 2026. The letter has been published as part of the publication Economic Survey, Autumn 2026 (in Finnish).
The Ministry of Finance forecasts moderate growth in the Finnish economy in 2026–2028, and economic developments in the first half of 2026 support this outlook. Growth is broad-based, but its effects on employment will materialise with a lag, and unemployment will remain higher than usual throughout the forecast period. The Ministry of Finance forecasts that price pressures will remain moderate.
According to the Economic Policy Council, the Ministry of Finance’s autumn 2026 macroeconomic forecast meets the requirements for endorsement. Based on the Council’s overall assessment, the forecast figures and the reasoning underlying them are credible.
Endorsement of the macroeconomic forecast is part of independent fiscal oversight
Since the beginning of 2026, the Economic Policy Council has served as Finland’s Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI). The endorsement of macroeconomic forecasts is one of the Council’s statutory responsibilities.
The Council endorses the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by the department responsible for forecasting at the Ministry of Finance twice a year. The spring forecast is endorsed before the Government’s spending limits session and the autumn forecast before the Government’s budget session.
The new background memorandum, Endorsement of the macroeconomic forecast as part of independent fiscal oversight, provides more detailed information on the criteria and process for endorsement and on the division of responsibilities between the Economic Policy Council and the National Audit Office of Finland in assessing forecasts. The memorandum also examines Finland’s approach in relation to other EU Member States and the past accuracy of the Ministry of Finance’s forecasts.
Memorandum:
Jenni Jaakkola, Jonne Lehtimäki and Veera Nippala (2026), Endorsement of the
macroeconomic forecast as part of independent fiscal oversight. Economic Policy
Council Memorandum 2/2026. (in Finnish)
For more information:
Economist Veera Nippala
Economic Policy Council
veera.nippala@vatt.fi
+358 295 519 433